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Adriese vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
B. Gioe 79'
F. Costa 20'
F. Busetto 84'
U. Nappello 49'
2/2/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Adriese46%
×Draw26%
Delta Porto Tolle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.50
Delta Porto Tolle
1.10

Adriese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
72%
Adriese or Delta Porto Tolle
74%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
54%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
23%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
78%
Adriese 2+ goals
44%
Adriese 3+ goals
19%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
67%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
30%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
63%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adriese scores more
46%
level
26%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
28%

Adriese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Costa
49'
U. Nappello
51'
S. Cicarevic
79'
B. Gioe
84'
F. Busetto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adriese vs Delta Porto Tolle

Adriese and Delta Porto Tolle drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 2, 2022.

Goals: F. Costa (20'), U. Nappello (49'), B. Gioe (79'), F. Busetto (84').

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.