Dellach im Gailtal 5–1 ASK Klagenfurt

Dellach im Gailtal

FT

5 – 1

ASK Klagenfurt

4/27/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal48%

×Draw21%

ASK Klagenfurt31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dellach im GailtalExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.69

Dellach im Gailtal

2.13

ASK Klagenfurt

1.69

Dellach im Gailtal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

2.65

creates per match

1.94

1.45

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal

2.65

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal

1.45

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw

69%

Dellach im Gailtal or ASK Klagenfurt

79%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

52%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+

28%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals

88%

Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals

63%

Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals

35%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

82%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

50%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)

61%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.13

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more

48%

level

21%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

31%

Dellach im Gailtal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff