ASK Klagenfurt 2–5 Dellach im Gailtal

ASK Klagenfurt

FT

2 – 5

Dellach im Gailtal

8/15/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 5ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt46%

×Draw21%

Dellach im Gailtal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchDellach im Gailtal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.72

ASK Klagenfurt

2.08

Dellach im Gailtal

1.72

ASK Klagenfurt creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

2.33

creates per match

2.05

1.39

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt

2.33

Dellach im Gailtal

2.05

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt

1.39

Dellach im Gailtal

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw

68%

ASK Klagenfurt or Dellach im Gailtal

79%

Draw or Dellach im Gailtal

54%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

27%

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

87%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

61%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

34%

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals

82%

Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals

51%

Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

59%

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 2.33 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

46%

level

21%

Dellach im Gailtal scores more

32%

ASK Klagenfurt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff