Delfin SC 1–1 Macara: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Delfin SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Macara

4/19/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Delfin SC44%

×Draw27%

Macara29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Delfin SC

1.35

Macara

1.05

Delfin SC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 117 away

1.37

creates per match

1.11

0.99

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.37

Macara

1.11

allows per match

Delfin SC

0.99

Macara

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

71%

Delfin SC or Macara

73%

Draw or Macara

56%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

20%

Macara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

74%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

39%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

15%

Macara 1+ goals

65%

Macara 2+ goals

28%

Macara 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

60%

Macara (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 130 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.37 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Macara attack 1.11 + Delfin SC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Delfin SC scores more

44%

level

27%

Macara scores more

29%

Delfin SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff