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Delfin SC vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Roberto Garcés 90'
5/26/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 15Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Delfin SC36%
×Draw27%
Independiente del Valle37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.26
Independiente del Valle
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 133 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.35
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Delfin SC
0.98
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
63%
Delfin SC or Independiente del Valle
73%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
64%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
16%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
72%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
36%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
13%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
72%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
36%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
50%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.98 · 129 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.35 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Delfin SC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Delfin SC scores more
36%
level
27%
Independiente del Valle scores more
37%

Independiente del Valle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Carlos Garcés
13'
Cristian Pellerano
43'
Pedro Perlaza
56'
Silvio Gutierrez← Geovanny Nazareno
61'
Alejandro Cabeza← Claudio Bieler
64'
Luis Cangá
71'
Juan Diego Rojas Caicedo← Sergio Lopez
71'
Jhon Sánchez← Efrén Mera
79'
Pedro Perlaza
79'
Pedro Perlaza
81'
David Alejandro Noboa← Roberto Ordóñez
82'
Roberto Garcés← Washington Corozo
90'
Roberto Garcés↳ Alan Franco

Possession

50%Delfin

Shots

5Delfin

Statistics

DelfinIndependiente
Overview
50%Possession50%
5Total Shots6
3Corners5
21Fouls27
Shots
5Total Shots6
1On Target2
4Off Target4
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls27
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards–
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Delfin SC vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Delfin SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on May 26, 2019.

Goals: Roberto Garcés (90').

Delfin SC controlled possession (50%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.