Delfin SC 1–3 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Delfin SC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona SC

M. Mejía 90+7'

0 F. Fydriszewski 90+10'

J. Corozo 71'

J. Rojas 14'

5/4/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Delfin SC38%

×Draw28%

Barcelona SC34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.16

Delfin SC

1.25

Barcelona SC

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 122 away

1.31

creates per match

1.33

0.98

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.31

Barcelona SC

1.33

allows per match

Delfin SC

0.98

Barcelona SC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

66%

Delfin SC or Barcelona SC

72%

Draw or Barcelona SC

62%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

71%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

36%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

13%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

69%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

32%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

53%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 121 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.31 + Barcelona SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Barcelona SC attack 1.33 + Delfin SC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delfin SC scores more

38%

level

28%

Barcelona SC scores more

34%

Delfin SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Mejía

Delfin SC · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

J. Rojas↳ D. Díaz

45+2'

Nicolás Goitea

45'

Jesús Trindade

60'

Leonai← D. Díaz

65'

Luis CastroCard upgrade

66'

Luis Castro

71'

J. Corozo↳ A. Preciado

75'

N. Messiniti← J. Angulo

75'

M. Mejía← J. Alman

75'

W. Vargas← M. Pineida

83'

F. Fydriszewski← J. Corozo

85'

D. Arroyo← F. Gaibor

89'

M. Mieles← H. Tijanovich

90+7'

Leonai Souza de Almeida

90+6'

Leonai Souza de AlmeidaCard upgrade

90+7'

M. Mejía↳ M. Mieles

90+10'

0 F. Fydriszewski↳ N. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DelfinBarcelona

Overview

34%Possession66%

12Total Shots7

3Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

34%Possession66%

265Total Passes517

190Accurate Passes439

72%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2