Barcelona SC 4–0 Delfin SC: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Delfin SC

J. Corozo 55', 18', 16'

O. Rivero 51'

10/27/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barcelona SC61%

×Draw24%

Delfin SC16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.72

Barcelona SC

1.70

Delfin SC

0.72

Barcelona SC creates 136% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

1.65

creates per match

0.57

0.87

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.65

Delfin SC

0.57

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.87

Delfin SC

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Delfin SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

84%

Barcelona SC or Delfin SC

76%

Draw or Delfin SC

39%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

34%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

82%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

51%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

24%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

51%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

16%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

80%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.87 · 46 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.75 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.65 + Delfin SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Delfin SC attack 0.57 + Barcelona SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

61%

level

24%

Delfin SC scores more

16%

Barcelona SC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Corozo

Barcelona SC · M

9.9

Match Events

16'

18'

45+3'

45'

45+3'

46'

Leonai Souza de Almeida

46'

Jefferson Nazareno← M. Mejía

51'

O. Rivero↳ C. Solano

55'

J. Corozo↳ B. Oyola

60'

E. Gaggi← A. García

60'

K. Sambonino← M. Miño

67'

D. Arroyo← J. Trindade

67'

A. Obando← O. Rivero

68'

E. Bello← C. Solano

68'

E. Zúñiga← Juan Nazareno

68'

N. Messiniti← J. Angulo

69'

F. Gaibor← Leonai

75'

Enzo Gaggi

80'

D. Reasco← B. Oyola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaDelfin

Overview

62%Possession38%

26Total Shots3

3Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

26Total Shots3

13On Target1

9Off Target2

4Blocked0

16Inside Box2

10Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

476Total Passes287

419Accurate Passes215

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1