Delfin SC vs America de Quito — Liga Pro 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Delfin SC56%
America de Quito18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Delfin SC creates 113% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Delfin SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 132 matches
America de Quito away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Delfin SC attack 1.38 + America de Quito defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49
America de Quito attack 0.40 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Delfin SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Aucas
Emelec
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FCDelfin SC
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Delfin SC host America de Quito on Sunday, 27 October 2019 at 19:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2018/2019 season.
Liga Pro: Delfin SC 2–1 America de Quito
Delfin SC beat America de Quito 2-1 in Liga Pro on October 27, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio Jocay (Manta).