America de Quito 1–1 Delfin SC: Result & Stats

America de Quito

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Delfin SC

5/19/2019

Liga Pro · Round 14Olimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito50%

×Draw26%

Delfin SC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

America de Quito

1.50

Delfin SC

0.94

America de Quito creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 133 away

1.33

creates per match

0.95

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

America de Quito

1.33

Delfin SC

0.95

allows per match

America de Quito

0.93

Delfin SC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Delfin SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

76%

America de Quito or Delfin SC

74%

Draw or Delfin SC

50%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

25%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

78%

America de Quito 2+ goals

44%

America de Quito 3+ goals

19%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

61%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

24%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

68%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

America de Quito scores more

50%

level

26%

Delfin SC scores more

24%

America de Quito at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff