Degerfors IF 2–0 Skövde AIK: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Skövde AIK

J. Bichis 85'

D. Vukojević 79'

7/27/2024

Superettan · Round 16Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Degerfors IF56%

×Draw22%

Skövde AIK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchSkövde AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.14

Degerfors IF

1.96

Skövde AIK

1.14

Degerfors IF creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 47 away

1.93

creates per match

1.11

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.93

Skövde AIK

1.11

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.17

Skövde AIK

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Skövde AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

78%

Degerfors IF or Skövde AIK

78%

Draw or Skövde AIK

44%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

33%

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

86%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

58%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

31%

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

68%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

32%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

72%

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

56%

level

22%

Skövde AIK scores more

22%

Degerfors IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

E. Pihlström

Degerfors IF · M

8.9

Match Events

12'

N. Moro← S. Ohlsson

28'

Mamadou Diagne

46'

S. Ljubicic← M. Diagne

60'

Gustav Lindgren

64'

C. Gravius← K. Holmén

70'

K. Bilalovic← E. Skillermo

70'

A. Hall← H. Engström

78'

T. Grönborg← J. Mårtensson

78'

J. Bichis← E. Lindell

79'

A. Fisic← G. Lindgren

79'

D. Vukojević

85'

J. Bichis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsSkövde

Overview

53%Possession47%

33Total Shots6

3.39Expected Goals (xG)0.47

10Corners4

9Fouls7

Shots

33Total Shots6

6On Target3

12Off Target2

15Blocked1

17Inside Box3

16Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

505Total Passes380

433Accurate Passes312

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0