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Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
K. Mammar Chaouche 36'
E. Bellander 9'
1/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Degerfors IF50%
×Draw25%
Skövde AIK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.58
Skövde AIK
1.04

Degerfors IF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.83
Skövde AIK
1.17

allows per match

Degerfors IF
0.92
Skövde AIK
1.33

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
75%
Degerfors IF or Skövde AIK
75%
Draw or Skövde AIK
50%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
26%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
79%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
47%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
21%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
65%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
28%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
67%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.83 + Skövde AIK defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Skövde AIK attack 1.17 + Degerfors IF defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
50%
level
25%
Skövde AIK scores more
25%

Degerfors IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Bellander
36'
K. Mammar Chaouche

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Degerfors IF 1–1 Skövde AIK

Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2023.

Goals: E. Bellander (9'), K. Mammar Chaouche (36').

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.