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Defensores Unidos vs Atletico Mitre — Primera Nacional 2026

Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Mitre
Atletico Mitre
6/15/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 18Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Defensores Unidos42%
×Draw32%
Atletico Mitre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Unidos
1.06
Atletico Mitre
0.78

Defensores Unidos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 124 away

creates per match

Defensores Unidos
0.96
Atletico Mitre
0.71

allows per match

Defensores Unidos
0.85
Atletico Mitre
1.17

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par
Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Atletico Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw
74%
Defensores Unidos or Atletico Mitre
68%
Draw or Atletico Mitre
58%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
17%
Atletico Mitre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
65%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
29%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
9%
Atletico Mitre 1+ goals
54%
Atletico Mitre 2+ goals
18%
Atletico Mitre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
61%
Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Atletico Mitre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Atletico Mitre defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atletico Mitre attack 0.71 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more
42%
level
32%
Atletico Mitre scores more
26%

Defensores Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Defensores Unidos 0–2 Atletico Mitre

Atletico Mitre beat Defensores Unidos 2-0 in Primera Nacional on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox in Zarate.