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Atletico Mitre vs Defensores Unidos — Primera Nacional 2026

Atletico Mitre
Atletico Mitre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
7/14/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 23Estadio Aurinegro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Atletico Mitre53%
×Draw28%
Defensores Unidos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mitre
1.35
Defensores Unidos
0.68

Atletico Mitre creates 99% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 54 away

creates per match

Atletico Mitre
1.16
Defensores Unidos
0.46

allows per match

Atletico Mitre
0.89
Defensores Unidos
1.54

finishing

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mitre ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Mitre or draw
81%
Atletico Mitre or Defensores Unidos
72%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
47%

Winning margin

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+
26%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Mitre 2+ goals
39%
Atletico Mitre 3+ goals
15%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
49%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
15%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)
74%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mitre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.89 · 124 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mitre attack 1.16 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Defensores Unidos attack 0.46 + Atletico Mitre defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Mitre scores more
53%
level
28%
Defensores Unidos scores more
19%

Atletico Mitre at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Mitre vs Defensores Unidos

Atletico Mitre beat Defensores Unidos 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Aurinegro in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.