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Defensores Unidos vs Aldosivi — Primera Nacional 2026

Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aldosivi
Aldosivi
7/7/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Defensores Unidos38%
×Draw31%
Aldosivi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Unidos
1.06
Aldosivi
0.91

Defensores Unidos creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Defensores Unidos
0.96
Aldosivi
0.97

allows per match

Defensores Unidos
0.85
Aldosivi
1.17

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par
Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Aldosivi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw
69%
Defensores Unidos or Aldosivi
69%
Draw or Aldosivi
62%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
15%
Aldosivi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
65%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
29%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
9%
Aldosivi 1+ goals
60%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
23%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
56%
Aldosivi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more
38%
level
31%
Aldosivi scores more
31%

Defensores Unidos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores Unidos vs Aldosivi

Defensores Unidos beat Aldosivi 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox in Zárate, Provincia de Buenos Aires.