Aldosivi 1–0 Defensores Unidos: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Defensores Unidos

2/17/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi55%

×Draw29%

Defensores Unidos16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchDefensores Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.58

Aldosivi

1.33

Defensores Unidos

0.58

Aldosivi creates 129% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

1.11

creates per match

0.46

0.70

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.11

Defensores Unidos

0.46

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.70

Defensores Unidos

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Defensores Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

84%

Aldosivi or Defensores Unidos

71%

Draw or Defensores Unidos

45%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

27%

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

74%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

38%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

15%

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

44%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

12%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

77%

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Defensores Unidos attack 0.46 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aldosivi scores more

55%

level

29%

Defensores Unidos scores more

16%

Aldosivi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff