Defensores de Cambaceres 0–0 Claypole

Defensores de Cambaceres

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Claypole

3/18/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 8Estadio 12 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Defensores de Cambaceres33%

×Draw32%

Claypole35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de CambaceresExpected goals in this matchClaypole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.97

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.93

Claypole

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 106 away

0.84

creates per match

0.96

0.98

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.84

Claypole

0.96

allows per match

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.98

Claypole

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par

Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Cambaceres ↓

Claypole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Cambaceres or draw

65%

Defensores de Cambaceres or Claypole

68%

Draw or Claypole

67%

Winning margin

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+

12%

Claypole wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals

61%

Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals

24%

Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals

7%

Claypole 1+ goals

62%

Claypole 2+ goals

25%

Claypole 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)

48%

Claypole (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Cambaceres at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.84 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Claypole attack 0.96 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more

33%

level

32%

Claypole scores more

35%

Claypole at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff