Claypole 1–1 Defensores de Cambaceres

Claypole

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Defensores de Cambaceres

8/5/2025

Primera C · Round 20Rodolfo Vicente Capocasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Claypole45%

×Draw30%

Defensores de Cambaceres25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClaypoleExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Cambaceres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.79

Claypole

1.18

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.79

Claypole creates 49% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 48 away

1.19

creates per match

0.67

0.91

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Claypole

1.19

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.67

allows per match

Claypole

0.91

Defensores de Cambaceres

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Defensores de Cambaceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Claypole or draw

75%

Claypole or Defensores de Cambaceres

70%

Draw or Defensores de Cambaceres

55%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+

20%

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals

69%

Claypole 2+ goals

33%

Claypole 3+ goals

12%

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals

55%

Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals

19%

Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)

65%

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Defensores de Cambaceres away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 1.19 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.67 + Claypole defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Claypole scores more

45%

level

30%

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more

25%

Claypole at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff