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Defensores de Cambaceres vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Defensores de Cambaceres
Defensores de Cambaceres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
2/24/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 4Estadio 12 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Defensores de Cambaceres34%
×Draw32%
Central Cordoba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.95
Central Cordoba
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 136 away

creates per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.84
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.98
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Cambaceres ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Cambaceres or draw
66%
Defensores de Cambaceres or Central Cordoba
68%
Draw or Central Cordoba
66%

Winning margin

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+
13%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals
61%
Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals
25%
Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals
7%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)
50%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Cambaceres at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.84 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more
34%
level
32%
Central Cordoba scores more
34%

Defensores de Cambaceres at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Defensores de Cambaceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
G. Perez
74'
P. Madero
85'
R. Fernandez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores de Cambaceres vs Central Cordoba

Defensores de Cambaceres and Central Cordoba drew 0-0 in Primera C on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 12 de Octubre in Ensenada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.