Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Def. de Pronunciamiento

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Def. de Pronunciamiento

M. Jaime 43' (pen)

9/9/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 29Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR48%

×Draw28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchDef. de Pronunciamiento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.31

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 88 away

1.13

creates per match

0.81

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.13

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.81

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Def. de Pronunciamiento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

76%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Def. de Pronunciamiento

72%

Draw or Def. de Pronunciamiento

52%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

22%

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

73%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

38%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

14%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

57%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

21%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

67%

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 0.81 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

48%

level

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

24%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

M. JaimePenalty

58'

A. Pastorelli← M. Villagrán

58'

R. Pelaytay← E. Serrano

69'

A. Laena← P. Sanz

75'

M. Bonfigli← M. Jaime

77'

N. Gómez← J. Laureiro

77'

A. Rizzo← Y. Gurnel

77'

L. Ilari← L. Robles

85'

A. Pastorelli

90'

L. Velasco← J. Cartechini

90'

B. Aranda← M. Machado

Defensores

Def.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Maza

69'▲A. Laena←▼P. Sanz

75'▲M. Bonfigli←▼M. Jaime

90'▲L. Velasco←▼J. Cartechini

90'▲B. Aranda←▼M. Machado

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

LaenaBonfigliVelascoAranda

Manager: H. Orcellet

58'▲A. Pastorelli←▼M. Villagrán

58'▲R. Pelaytay←▼E. Serrano

77'▲N. Gómez←▼J. Laureiro

77'▲A. Rizzo←▼Y. Gurnel

77'▲L. Ilari←▼L. Robles

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

PastorelliPelaytayGómezRizzoIlari

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1 – 0 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat Def. de Pronunciamiento 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 9, 2023.

Goals: M. Jaime (43' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín in Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Def. de Pronunciamiento — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1 – 0 Def. de Pronunciamiento