Def. de Pronunciamiento vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Def. de Pronunciamiento

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Defensores de Belgrano VR

J. Rossi 71'

L. Robles 60'

M. Machado 35'

7/8/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 20Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento43%

×Draw28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Def. de PronunciamientoExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.27

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.96

Def. de Pronunciamiento creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

1.02

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.19

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.02

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Def. de Pronunciamiento ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Def. de Pronunciamiento or draw

72%

Def. de Pronunciamiento or Defensores de Belgrano VR

72%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

57%

Winning margin

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

20%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

72%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

36%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

14%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

62%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

25%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

61%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Def. de Pronunciamiento at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 1.19 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

43%

level

28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Def. de Pronunciamiento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Machado

46'

J. Cartechini← F. Lovotti

55'

L. Chacana← M. Machado

56'

L. Ilari← M. Álvez

60'

L. Robles

64'

M. Sagristiani← M. Bonfigli

71'

J. Rossi

74'

G. Saliadarre← L. Robles

77'

M. Jaime← A. Laena

77'

M. Olego← L. Monzón

79'

J. Jaime

84'

E. Martínez← J. Rossi

84'

A. Rizzo← H. Echagüe

84'

R. Pelaytay← E. Serrano

Def.

Defensores

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rossi

Hofstette

⚽

▼

Robles

Manager: H. Orcellet

56'▲L. Ilari←▼M. Álvez

74'▲G. Saliadarre←▼L. Robles

84'▲E. Martínez←▼J. Rossi

84'▲A. Rizzo←▼H. Echagüe

84'▲R. Pelaytay←▼E. Serrano

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

IlariSaliadarreMartínezRizzoPelaytay

Manager: S. Maza

46'▲J. Cartechini←▼F. Lovotti

55'▲L. Chacana←▼M. Machado

64'▲M. Sagristiani←▼M. Bonfigli

77'▲M. Jaime←▼A. Laena

77'▲M. Olego←▼L. Monzón

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

CartechiniChacanaSagristianiJaimeOlego

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2 – 1 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Def. de Pronunciamiento beat Defensores de Belgrano VR 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 8, 2023.

Goals: M. Machado (35'), L. Robles (60'), J. Rossi (71').

The match was played at Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo in Pronunciamiento, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Def. de Pronunciamiento vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2 – 1 Defensores de Belgrano VR