Defensores de Belgrano VR 4–1 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belgrano Santa Rosa

D. Bielkiewicz 90+4'

M. Nouet 83'

F. Coronel 63'

D. Ramírez 40'

M. Prioreschi 69'

10/21/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 8Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR52%

×Draw27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.82

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.44

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.82

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 76% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 25 away

1.13

creates per match

0.76

0.88

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.13

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.76

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

79%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Belgrano Santa Rosa

73%

Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa

48%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

26%

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

76%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

42%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

18%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

56%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

20%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

71%

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.76 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

52%

level

27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

21%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

D. Ramírez

46'

M. Prioreschi← T. Hernández

46'

L. García← J. Lincopán

63'

F. Coronel

68'

A. Cuestas← G. Strillevsky

69'

M. Prioreschi

78'

P. Saucedo← F. Castro

83'

M. Nouet

85'

J. Bonetto← F. Coronel

89'

D. Bielkiewicz← D. Ramírez

90+4'

D. Bielkiewicz

Defensores

Belgrano

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Coronel

▼

Castro

⚽

Nouet

Manager: J. Martínez

78'▲P. Saucedo←▼F. Castro

85'▲J. Bonetto←▼F. Coronel

89'▲D. Bielkiewicz←▼D. Ramírez

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

SaucedoBonettoBielkiewicz

Manager: J. Almada

46'▲M. Prioreschi←▼T. Hernández

46'▲L. García←▼J. Lincopán

68'▲A. Cuestas←▼G. Strillevsky

Belgrano Santa Rosa substitutes

PrioreschiGarcíaCuestas