Belgrano Santa Rosa 1–1 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Belgrano Santa Rosa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Defensores de Belgrano VR

J. Guerra 23'

F. Castro 22'

11/13/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 13Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa40%

×Draw29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano Santa RosaExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.17

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.97

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 115 away

1.00

creates per match

0.90

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.00

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.04

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw

70%

Belgrano Santa Rosa or Defensores de Belgrano VR

71%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

60%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

17%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

69%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

33%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

11%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

62%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

25%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

57%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.00 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

40%

level

29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

30%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

F. Castro

23'

J. Guerra

58'

G. Strillevsky← A. Uhaldegaray

71'

M. Prioreschi← J. Galárraga

72'

R. Freites← P. Saucedo

75'

L. García← J. Guerra

76'

D. Mondino← Walter De Souza

89'

J. Bonetto← M. Nouet

Belgrano

Defensores

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Guerra

Manager: J. Almada

58'▲G. Strillevsky←▼A. Uhaldegaray

71'▲M. Prioreschi←▼J. Galárraga

75'▲L. García←▼J. Guerra

Belgrano Santa Rosa substitutes

StrillevskyPrioreschiGarcía

Manager: J. Martínez

72'▲R. Freites←▼P. Saucedo

76'▲D. Mondino←▼Walter De Souza

89'▲J. Bonetto←▼M. Nouet

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

FreitesMondinoBonetto