Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo — Primera División - Apertura 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 78+ matches
Defensor Sporting45%
Cerro Largo28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Defensor Sporting creates 36% more chances
Season form · 81 home / 78 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Defensor Sporting ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches
Cerro Largo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 78 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Defensor Sporting attack 1.54 + Cerro Largo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36
Cerro Largo attack 0.86 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Defensor Sporting at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Club Nacional
Penarol
Progreso
Fenix
DanubioDefensor Sporting
Wanderers
Atenas
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
CA River Plate
El Tanque Sisley
Atletico Torque
Rampla JuniorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Defensor Sporting host Cerro Largo on Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 00:30. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027 season.
Primera División - Apertura: Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting beat Cerro Largo 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 21, 2026.
Goals: B. Montenegro (52').
The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.