Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2026
Primera División - Apertura · Torneo Intermedio - 5Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio UbillaMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 75+ matches
Cerro Largo38%
Defensor Sporting34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 75 home / 75 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cerro Largo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches
Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cerro Largo attack 1.24 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17
Defensor Sporting attack 1.17 + Cerro Largo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Cerro Largo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Cerro Largo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Defensor Sporting substitutes
Club Nacional
Penarol
Progreso
Fenix
DanubioDefensor Sporting
Wanderers
Atenas
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
CA River Plate
El Tanque Sisley
Atletico Torque
Rampla JuniorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Cerro Largo host Defensor Sporting on Monday, 13 July 2026 at 22:00. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027 season.
Cerro Largo 1 – 1 Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on July 13, 2026.
Goals: D. Daguerre (18'), M. Amaro (28').
The match was played at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla in Melo.