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Defensor Sporting vs Cerro — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cerro
Cerro
6/22/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 6Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Defensor Sporting53%
×Draw25%
Cerro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensor Sporting
1.64
Cerro
0.97

Defensor Sporting creates 69% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

creates per match

Defensor Sporting
1.54
Cerro
0.80

allows per match

Defensor Sporting
1.15
Cerro
1.73

finishing

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par
Cerro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensor Sporting ↓

Cerro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Defensor Sporting or draw
78%
Defensor Sporting or Cerro
75%
Draw or Cerro
47%

Winning margin

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
28%
Cerro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
81%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
49%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
23%
Cerro 1+ goals
62%
Cerro 2+ goals
25%
Cerro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
70%
Cerro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Cerro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensor Sporting attack 1.54 + Cerro defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cerro attack 0.80 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Defensor Sporting scores more
53%
level
25%
Cerro scores more
22%

Defensor Sporting at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Defensor Sporting 2–1 Cerro

Defensor Sporting beat Cerro 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.