Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cerro vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Cerro
Cerro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
4/5/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Luis Troccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cerro36%
×Draw30%
Defensor Sporting34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro
1.08
Defensor Sporting
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 75 away

creates per match

Cerro
1.06
Defensor Sporting
1.17

allows per match

Cerro
0.92
Defensor Sporting
1.09

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par
Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Defensor Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cerro or draw
66%
Cerro or Defensor Sporting
70%
Draw or Defensor Sporting
64%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+
14%
Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals
66%
Cerro 2+ goals
29%
Cerro 3+ goals
10%
Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
65%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
28%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)
51%
Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.92 · 64 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.06 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Defensor Sporting attack 1.17 + Cerro defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cerro scores more
36%
level
30%
Defensor Sporting scores more
34%

Cerro at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Cerro 1–0 Defensor Sporting

Cerro beat Defensor Sporting 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Troccoli in Montevideo.