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Defensor Sporting vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
2/1/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Defensor Sporting45%
×Draw27%
Boston River29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensor Sporting
1.41
Boston River
1.08

Defensor Sporting creates 31% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

creates per match

Defensor Sporting
1.54
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Defensor Sporting
1.15
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensor Sporting ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Defensor Sporting or draw
71%
Defensor Sporting or Boston River
73%
Draw or Boston River
55%

Winning margin

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
21%
Boston River wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
76%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
41%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
17%
Boston River 1+ goals
66%
Boston River 2+ goals
29%
Boston River 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
61%
Boston River (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensor Sporting attack 1.54 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Boston River attack 1.02 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Defensor Sporting scores more
45%
level
27%
Boston River scores more
29%

Defensor Sporting at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Defensor Sporting 2–0 Boston River

Defensor Sporting beat Boston River 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.