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Boston River vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
4/6/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 7Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Boston River34%
×Draw28%
Defensor Sporting38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.14
Defensor Sporting
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 75 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Defensor Sporting
1.17

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Defensor Sporting
1.09

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Defensor Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
62%
Boston River or Defensor Sporting
72%
Draw or Defensor Sporting
66%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
14%
Defensor Sporting wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
68%
Boston River 2+ goals
32%
Boston River 3+ goals
11%
Defensor Sporting 1+ goals
71%
Defensor Sporting 2+ goals
35%
Defensor Sporting 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
47%
Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Defensor Sporting attack 1.17 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boston River scores more
34%
level
28%
Defensor Sporting scores more
38%

Defensor Sporting at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 2–2 Defensor Sporting

Boston River and Defensor Sporting drew 2-2 in Primera División - Apertura on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Ciudad de Florida.