Dedza Dynamos 4–0 Baka City: Result & Stats

Dedza Dynamos

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Baka City

7/25/2024

Super League · Round 12Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dedza Dynamos76%

×Draw16%

Baka City8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dedza DynamosExpected goals in this matchBaka City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.58

Dedza Dynamos

2.28

Baka City

0.58

Dedza Dynamos creates 293% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

0.47

0.70

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos

1.08

Baka City

0.47

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos

0.70

Baka City

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Baka City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw

92%

Dedza Dynamos or Baka City

84%

Draw or Baka City

24%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

52%

Baka City wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

90%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

66%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

39%

Baka City 1+ goals

44%

Baka City 2+ goals

12%

Baka City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

91%

Baka City (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.28

Baka City attack 0.47 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more

76%

level

16%

Baka City scores more

8%

Dedza Dynamos at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff