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Baka City vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
11/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City39%
×Draw29%
Dedza Dynamos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
1.18
Dedza Dynamos
1.06

Baka City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
67%
Baka City or Dedza Dynamos
71%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
61%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
16%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
69%
Baka City 2+ goals
33%
Baka City 3+ goals
12%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
65%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
29%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
54%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baka City scores more
39%
level
29%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
33%

Baka City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baka City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs Dedza Dynamos

Baka City and Dedza Dynamos drew 1-1 in Super League on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.