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Dečić vs Sutjeska — First League 2025

Dečić
Dečić
Preview
14:00
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
11/29/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Tusko
Big match
40%
Dečić
model favours
40%26%34%

Dečić score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dečić40%
×Draw26%
Sutjeska34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.39
Sutjeska
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.61
Sutjeska
1.39

allows per match

Dečić
1.17
Sutjeska
1.17

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
66%
Dečić or Sutjeska
74%
Draw or Sutjeska
60%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
18%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
75%
Dečić 2+ goals
40%
Dečić 3+ goals
16%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
72%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
37%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
53%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.61 + Sutjeska defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sutjeska attack 1.39 + Dečić defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dečić scores more
40%
level
26%
Sutjeska scores more
34%

Dečić at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • 69% of Dečić’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Dečić’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Dečić 4 vs Sutjeska 1
  • Dečić win just 19% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dečić
LLWDL
Sutjeska
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dečić vs Sutjeska — Match Preview

Dečić face Sutjeska on November 29, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dečić host Sutjeska at Tusko.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.