Debrecen II 1–0 Cigand SE: Result & Stats

Debrecen II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cigand SE

11/10/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 15Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Debrecen II43%

×Draw23%

Cigand SE34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Debrecen IIExpected goals in this matchCigand SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.48

Debrecen II

1.70

Cigand SE

1.48

Debrecen II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

2.03

creates per match

1.58

1.38

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Debrecen II

2.03

Cigand SE

1.58

allows per match

Debrecen II

1.38

Cigand SE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par

Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Cigand SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw

66%

Debrecen II or Cigand SE

77%

Draw or Cigand SE

57%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+

22%

Cigand SE wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals

82%

Debrecen II 2+ goals

51%

Debrecen II 3+ goals

24%

Cigand SE 1+ goals

77%

Cigand SE 2+ goals

43%

Cigand SE 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)

56%

Cigand SE (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Debrecen II scores more

43%

level

23%

Cigand SE scores more

34%

Debrecen II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff