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Cigand SE vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Cigand SE
Cigand SE
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
5/25/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 30Cigánd Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cigand SE55%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cigand SE
1.88
Debrecen II
1.12

Cigand SE creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cigand SE
1.98
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Cigand SE
0.62
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Cigand SE+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cigand SE ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cigand SE or draw
78%
Cigand SE or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
45%

Winning margin

Cigand SE wins by 2+
32%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cigand SE 1+ goals
85%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
56%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
29%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
67%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
31%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cigand SE (draw refunded)
71%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cigand SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cigand SE attack 1.98 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.88

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Cigand SE defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cigand SE scores more
55%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
22%

Cigand SE at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cigand SE vs Debrecen II

Cigand SE beat Debrecen II 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Cigánd Városi Stadion in Cigánd.