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Debibi United vs KAC Soccer — Division One League 2025

Debibi United
Debibi United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
11/2/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Debibi United63%
×Draw22%
KAC Soccer16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debibi United
1.90
KAC Soccer
0.82

Debibi United creates 132% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Debibi United
2.43
KAC Soccer
1.21

allows per match

Debibi United
0.43
KAC Soccer
1.36

finishing

Debibi United+0.00on par
KAC Soccer+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debibi United ↓

KAC Soccer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Debibi United or draw
84%
Debibi United or KAC Soccer
78%
Draw or KAC Soccer
37%

Winning margin

Debibi United wins by 2+
37%
KAC Soccer wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Debibi United 1+ goals
85%
Debibi United 2+ goals
56%
Debibi United 3+ goals
29%
KAC Soccer 1+ goals
56%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
20%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Debibi United (draw refunded)
80%
KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debibi United at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 14 matches

KAC Soccer away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debibi United attack 2.43 + KAC Soccer defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

KAC Soccer attack 1.21 + Debibi United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Debibi United scores more
63%
level
22%
KAC Soccer scores more
16%

Debibi United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Debibi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Debibi United vs KAC Soccer

Debibi United beat KAC Soccer 2-1 in Division One League on November 2, 2025.