De Treffers 1–1 AFC Amsterdam: Result & Stats

De Treffers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Amsterdam

3/7/2026

Tweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Zuid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

De Treffers39%

×Draw24%

AFC Amsterdam37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De TreffersExpected goals in this matchAFC Amsterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.53

De Treffers

1.58

AFC Amsterdam

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

1.82

creates per match

1.68

1.39

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

De Treffers

1.82

AFC Amsterdam

1.68

allows per match

De Treffers

1.39

AFC Amsterdam

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

AFC Amsterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw

63%

De Treffers or AFC Amsterdam

76%

Draw or AFC Amsterdam

61%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+

19%

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals

79%

De Treffers 2+ goals

47%

De Treffers 3+ goals

21%

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

78%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

45%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)

51%

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

De Treffers scores more

39%

level

24%

AFC Amsterdam scores more

37%

De Treffers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff