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AFC Amsterdam vs De Treffers — Tweede Divisie 2019

AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
De Treffers
De Treffers
3/16/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AFC Amsterdam45%
×Draw23%
De Treffers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Amsterdam
1.74
De Treffers
1.43

AFC Amsterdam creates 22% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.97
De Treffers
1.60

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.26
De Treffers
1.51

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par
De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

De Treffers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw
68%
AFC Amsterdam or De Treffers
77%
Draw or De Treffers
55%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
24%
De Treffers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
82%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
52%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
25%
De Treffers 1+ goals
76%
De Treffers 2+ goals
42%
De Treffers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
59%
De Treffers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.74

De Treffers attack 1.60 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more
45%
level
23%
De Treffers scores more
32%

AFC Amsterdam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Amsterdam 1 – 1 De Treffers

AFC Amsterdam and De Treffers drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Goed Genoeg in Amsterdam.