Darya Babol 0–3 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Darya Babol

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Chadormalu SC

12/20/2023

Azadegan League · Round 17Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Darya Babol31%

×Draw32%

Chadormalu SC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darya BabolExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.00

Darya Babol

0.88

Chadormalu SC

1.00

Chadormalu SC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

1.15

creates per match

1.16

0.85

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Darya Babol

1.15

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Darya Babol

0.85

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw

63%

Darya Babol or Chadormalu SC

68%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

69%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+

11%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals

59%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

22%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

6%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

63%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

26%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

45%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.88

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Darya Babol scores more

31%

level

32%

Chadormalu SC scores more

37%

Chadormalu SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff