Chadormalu SC 1–0 Darya Babol: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Darya Babol

6/10/2024

Azadegan League · Round 34Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC46%

×Draw30%

Darya Babol24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchDarya Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.80

Chadormalu SC

1.21

Darya Babol

0.80

Chadormalu SC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.71

0.90

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.29

Darya Babol

0.71

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Darya Babol

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Darya Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

76%

Chadormalu SC or Darya Babol

70%

Draw or Darya Babol

54%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

20%

Darya Babol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

70%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

34%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

12%

Darya Babol 1+ goals

55%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

19%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

65%

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

46%

level

30%

Darya Babol scores more

24%

Chadormalu SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff