Darmstadt 98 U19 1–4 Bayern München U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bayern München U19

M. Borger 86'

R. Ramsak 59'

M. Schablas 23'

D. Jonathans 14'

L. Becker 2'

5/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 3Sportplatz Roßdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1932%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.06

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.70

Bayern München U19

2.06

Bayern München U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 72 away

1.73

creates per match

2.63

1.49

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

54%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

68%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

16%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

82%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

51%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

24%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

87%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

61%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

46%

Bayern München U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

14'

23'

46'

55'

M. Träger← A. Schreck

59'

R. Ramsak

62'

B. Emci← R. Deziel

62'

S. Sen← R. Ramsak

62'

64'

64'

72'

72'

E. Demircan← D. Jonathans

77'

J. Fazal← S. Gegg

86'

M. Borger

Darmstadt

Bayern

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Jonathans

▼

Scholze

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Petrowsky

46'▲P. Hamm←▼V. Turudija

55'▲M. Träger←▼A. Schreck

64'▲L. Kaiser←▼N. Baier

64'▲M. Borger←▼A. Toch

77'▲J. Fazal←▼S. Gegg

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

HammTrägerKaiserBorgerFazalZimmer

Manager: D. Galm

62'▲B. Emci←▼R. Deziel

62'▲S. Sen←▼R. Ramsak

62'▲Y. Qashi←▼M. Scholze

72'▲B. Wimmer←▼K. Bengi

72'▲E. Demircan←▼D. Jonathans

Bayern München U19 substitutes

EmciSenQashiWimmerDemircanBöhmeke