Bayern München U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Bayern München U19

CANC

10:00

Darmstadt 98 U19

1/31/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bayern München U1957%

×Draw19%

Darmstadt 98 U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.54

Bayern München U19

2.42

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.54

Bayern München U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

2.58

creates per match

1.56

1.52

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

76%

Bayern München U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

81%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

43%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

36%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

91%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

69%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

43%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

79%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

45%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

24%

Bayern München U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff