Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Danubio vs CA River Plate — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Danubio
Danubio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CA River Plate
CA River Plate
7/22/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 7Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Danubio45%
×Draw28%
CA River Plate27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Danubio
1.33
CA River Plate
0.96

Danubio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 75 away

creates per match

Danubio
1.18
CA River Plate
0.92

allows per match

Danubio
0.99
CA River Plate
1.48

finishing

Danubio+0.00on par
CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Danubio ↓

CA River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Danubio or draw
73%
Danubio or CA River Plate
72%
Draw or CA River Plate
55%

Winning margin

Danubio wins by 2+
21%
CA River Plate wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Danubio 1+ goals
74%
Danubio 2+ goals
38%
Danubio 3+ goals
15%
CA River Plate 1+ goals
62%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
25%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Danubio (draw refunded)
63%
CA River Plate (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Danubio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Danubio attack 1.18 + CA River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

CA River Plate attack 0.92 + Danubio defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Danubio scores more
45%
level
28%
CA River Plate scores more
27%

Danubio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Danubio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Danubio 0–0 CA River Plate

Danubio and CA River Plate drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo in Montevideo.