CA River Plate 2–1 Danubio: Result & Stats

CA River Plate

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Danubio

3/31/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 9Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

CA River Plate43%

×Draw26%

Danubio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA River PlateExpected goals in this matchDanubio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

CA River Plate

1.40

Danubio

1.15

CA River Plate creates 22% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 80 away

1.53

creates per match

1.05

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

CA River Plate

1.53

Danubio

1.05

allows per match

CA River Plate

1.24

Danubio

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Danubio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Danubio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw

69%

CA River Plate or Danubio

74%

Draw or Danubio

57%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+

20%

Danubio wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals

75%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

41%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

17%

Danubio 1+ goals

68%

Danubio 2+ goals

32%

Danubio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

58%

Danubio (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 72 matches

Danubio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.53 + Danubio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Danubio attack 1.05 + CA River Plate defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CA River Plate scores more

43%

level

26%

Danubio scores more

31%

CA River Plate at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff