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Dangjin Citizen vs Daejeon Korail — K3 League 2026

Dangjin Citizen
Dangjin Citizen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
10/29/2022K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 30Dangjin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dangjin Citizen36%
×Draw25%
Daejeon Korail39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dangjin Citizen
1.36
Daejeon Korail
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 113 away

creates per match

Dangjin Citizen
1.38
Daejeon Korail
1.27

allows per match

Dangjin Citizen
1.57
Daejeon Korail
1.35

finishing

Dangjin Citizen+0.00on par
Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dangjin Citizen ↓

Daejeon Korail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dangjin Citizen or draw
61%
Dangjin Citizen or Daejeon Korail
75%
Draw or Daejeon Korail
64%

Winning margin

Dangjin Citizen wins by 2+
16%
Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dangjin Citizen 1+ goals
74%
Dangjin Citizen 2+ goals
39%
Dangjin Citizen 3+ goals
16%
Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
76%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
41%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dangjin Citizen (draw refunded)
48%
Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dangjin Citizen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Daejeon Korail away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dangjin Citizen attack 1.38 + Daejeon Korail defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Daejeon Korail attack 1.27 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dangjin Citizen scores more
36%
level
25%
Daejeon Korail scores more
39%

Daejeon Korail at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dangjin Citizen vs Daejeon Korail

Daejeon Korail beat Dangjin Citizen 1-0 in K3 League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Dangjin Stadium in Dangjin.