Daejeon Korail 3–1 Dangjin Citizen: Result & Stats

Daejeon Korail

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dangjin Citizen

6/3/2022

K3 League · Round 15Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Daejeon Korail51%

×Draw26%

Dangjin Citizen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon KorailExpected goals in this matchDangjin Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Daejeon Korail

1.50

Dangjin Citizen

0.91

Daejeon Korail creates 65% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 26 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

0.90

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Daejeon Korail

1.31

Dangjin Citizen

0.92

allows per match

Daejeon Korail

0.90

Dangjin Citizen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Dangjin Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Dangjin Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw

77%

Daejeon Korail or Dangjin Citizen

74%

Draw or Dangjin Citizen

49%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+

26%

Dangjin Citizen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals

78%

Daejeon Korail 2+ goals

44%

Daejeon Korail 3+ goals

19%

Dangjin Citizen 1+ goals

60%

Dangjin Citizen 2+ goals

23%

Dangjin Citizen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)

69%

Dangjin Citizen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Dangjin Citizen away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.31 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dangjin Citizen attack 0.92 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more

51%

level

26%

Dangjin Citizen scores more

23%

Daejeon Korail at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff