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Dandora Love vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
2 – 2
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
6/18/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love44%
×Draw23%
Coastal Heroes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.83
Coastal Heroes
1.59

Dandora Love creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
66%
Dandora Love or Coastal Heroes
77%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
56%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
23%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
84%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
54%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
28%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
80%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
47%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
56%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dandora Love scores more
44%
level
23%
Coastal Heroes scores more
34%

Dandora Love at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dandora Love will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dandora Love 2–2 Coastal Heroes

Dandora Love and Coastal Heroes drew 2-2 in Super League on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.