Coastal Heroes 6–1 Dandora Love: Result & Stats

Coastal Heroes

FT

6 – 1

Dandora Love

2/26/2022

Super League · Round 13Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coastal Heroes60%

×Draw21%

Dandora Love19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal HeroesExpected goals in this matchDandora Love

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.02

Coastal Heroes

2.01

Dandora Love

1.02

Coastal Heroes creates 97% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 15 away

1.55

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Coastal Heroes

1.55

Dandora Love

1.00

allows per match

Coastal Heroes

1.04

Dandora Love

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Dandora Love →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw

81%

Coastal Heroes or Dandora Love

79%

Draw or Dandora Love

40%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

36%

Dandora Love wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

87%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

59%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

32%

Dandora Love 1+ goals

64%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

27%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

76%

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more

60%

level

21%

Dandora Love scores more

19%

Coastal Heroes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff