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Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
A. Al Qahtani 37'
M. Al Shanqiti 45'
1/13/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 15Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Damac33%
×Draw24%
Al-Ittihad FC43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.39
Al-Ittihad FC
1.62

Al-Ittihad FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Damac
1.11
Al-Ittihad FC
1.95

allows per match

Damac
1.29
Al-Ittihad FC
1.67

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Damac or draw
57%
Damac or Al-Ittihad FC
76%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
67%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
15%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
75%
Damac 2+ goals
40%
Damac 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
80%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
48%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
43%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.11 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.95 + Damac defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Damac scores more
33%
level
24%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
43%

Al-Ittihad FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. Al ShanqitiAl-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
Muhannad ShanqeetiGoal cancelled
37'
A. Al Qahtani↳ R. Sharahili
45'
M. Al Shanqiti
46'
S. Al Shehri← K. Benzema
57'
A. Al Ghamdi← Roger
59'
Muhannad Shanqeeti
68'
A. Al Julaydan← A. Sharahili
69'
Fabinho
69'
Y. Naji← H. Al Ghamdi
83'
T. Abdullah← S. Al Hawsawi
83'
K. Al Samiri← A. Al Qahtani
85'
A. Al Bishi← N. Kante
90+11'
Steven Bergwijn
90+8'
Fabinho
90+8'
Fabinho
90+5'
J. Harkass← R. Sharahili

Possession

33%Damac

Shots

8Damac

Pass accuracy

45%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Ittihad
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots17
0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.77
1Corners12
6Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots17
4On Target3
4Off Target9
0Blocked5
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box9
Passing
33%Possession67%
286Total Passes551
207Accurate Passes477
72%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls12
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Damac 1 – 1 Al-Ittihad FC

Damac and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on January 13, 2026.

Goals: A. Al Qahtani (37'), M. Al Shanqiti (45').

Al-Ittihad FC controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.