Al-Ittihad FC 2–1 Damac: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Damac

A. Al Bishi 90'

H. Aouar 24'

Y. Meite 73'

5/10/2026

Pro League · Round 32King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC48%

×Draw26%

Damac26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchDamac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Al-Ittihad FC

1.50

Damac

1.02

Al-Ittihad FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

1.33

creates per match

0.87

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.33

Damac

0.87

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.17

Damac

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Damac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

74%

Al-Ittihad FC or Damac

74%

Draw or Damac

52%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

24%

Damac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

78%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

44%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

19%

Damac 1+ goals

64%

Damac 2+ goals

27%

Damac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

65%

Damac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Damac away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.33 + Damac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Damac attack 0.87 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

48%

level

26%

Damac scores more

26%

Al-Ittihad FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Rajkovic

Al-Ittihad FC · G

9.2

Match Events

24'

H. Aouar↳ M. Diaby

60'

Y. Meite← Y. Naji

62'

S. Al Shehri← Y. En Nesyri

62'

A. Al Oboud← M. Diaby

73'

Y. Meite↳ A. Al Obaid

74'

A. Al Bishi← A. Al Nashri

74'

D. Al Anazi← A. Al Obaid

74'

N. Al Saadi← David Kaiki

74'

A. Al Qahtani← J. Okita

85'

A. Al Ghamdi← M. Al Shanqiti

87'

H. Al Ghamdi←

88'

Tariq Mohammed

90+6'

Steven Bergwijn

90'

A. Al Bishi↳ S. Al Shehri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-IttihadDamac

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots15

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.30

9Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots15

7On Target8

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

15Inside Box9

1Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

503Total Passes337

449Accurate Passes285

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2