Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
Damac33%
Al-Ittihad FC42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Ittihad FC creates 15% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 126 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Damac ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Damac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches
Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Damac attack 1.32 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29
Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Damac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Al-Ittihad FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Al-Nassr
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al Taawon
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shabab
Al-Faisaly FC
Al Wehda Club
Al-Raed
Al-FatehAl-Ittihad FC
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Fayha
Al-Hazm
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Baten
OhodIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Damac host Al-Ittihad FC on Thursday, 7 December 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Pro League: Damac 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC
Damac beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 in Pro League on December 7, 2023.
Goals: G. Nkoudou (12', 45+7'), A. Hamed Allah (45+3' pen), Marcelo Grohe (46' o.g.).
Al-Ittihad FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 15.
The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.