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Damac vs Al-Hazm — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
J. Harkass 90'
F. Martins 57' (pen)
8/28/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 1Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Damac46%
×Draw27%
Al-Hazm28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.43
Al-Hazm
1.05

Damac creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Damac
1.11
Al-Hazm
0.89

allows per match

Damac
1.22
Al-Hazm
1.74

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Damac or draw
72%
Damac or Al-Hazm
73%
Draw or Al-Hazm
54%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
22%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
76%
Damac 2+ goals
42%
Damac 3+ goals
17%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
65%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
28%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
62%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.11 + Al-Hazm defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al-Hazm attack 0.89 + Damac defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Damac scores more
46%
level
27%
Al-Hazm scores more
28%

Damac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Damac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. HarkassDamacDamac · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
Mohammed Eissa Al-Yami
34'
Yakou Méïté
45+1'
Khaled Al-Semeiry
46'
H. Al Ghamdi← Y. Naji
46'
M. Al Saedi← M. Al Yami
55'
Yousef Al-ShammariPenalty confirmed
57'
F. MartinsPenalty
64'
David Kaiki← K. Al Samiri
64'
A. R. Al Khaibre← S. Al Hawsawi
72'
E. Mokwana← A. Sayoud
72'
O. Al Somah← Y. Al Shammari
73'
Nabil Alioui
80'
A. Al Qahtani← N. Alioui
87'
A. Al Dakheel← A. Bah
89'
Elias Mokwana
89'
A. Al Obaid← Y. Meite
90+5'
Hazzaa Al-Ghamdi
90+9'
Abdulaziz Al-Harbi
90+8'
N. Al Habashi← F. Martins
90'
J. Harkass↳ V. Vada

Possession

59%Damac

Shots

9Damac

Pass accuracy

52%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Hazm
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots9
4Corners2
11Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target4
4Off Target4
4Blocked1
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
479Total Passes333
397Accurate Passes255
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls19
4Yellow Cards3

Pro League: Damac 1–1 Al-Hazm

Damac and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in Pro League on August 28, 2025.

Goals: F. Martins (57' pen), J. Harkass (90').

Damac controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.